tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53060221806228784602024-03-04T22:15:02.338-08:00NafzblogNafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.comBlogger99125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-11383308925236981032018-08-18T12:53:00.000-07:002018-08-18T12:53:03.080-07:00FINDING HOPE AND INSPIRATION AS WE RESIST IMMIGRANT AND REFUGEE FAMILIES BEING TORN APART<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">MARK M. MCDERMOTT<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">July 30, 2018<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Everywhere I go, many people
are upset and angry about the brutal, cruel and inhumane immigration policies
of the Trump administration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The latest
wave of outrage has focused on individuals and families seeking asylum, refugee
status and, safety from brutal and unsafe conditions in their homelands.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Trump solution has been to forcibly
separate children from their parents and jail entire families with virtually no
regard for the law or the impacts on these children and their families.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">As I reflect on these
deliberate abuses by the administration, I want to find hope and inspiration
that will encourage people to continue their fights to change these immigration
policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>So where do I find hope and
inspiration?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The extraordinary level of
resistance that led to 700+ demonstrations and protests on June 30<sup>th</sup>
alone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is unprecedented in our
nation’s history of immigration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
soul of our country is not dead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
rising up against these and so many other injustices.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is critically
important for people of conscience to use our own history to grasp the
significance of our modern-day resistance and find hope and inspiration to keep
fighting forward. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Consider this
perspective.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">For almost 250 years, it
was constitutional and legal for white slavers and slave-owners to rip children
away from their unjustly enslaved parents. Children were separated from their
parents and sold to separate slave owners. The power of our government and the
dominant social mores backed these practices.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Tragically, the outcry of the white population was small and weak for
most of this period.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Eventually, African-Americans
and people of conscience organized the abolitionist movement and these barbaric
slavery practices were wiped out after the Civil War.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">How many children and their parents suffered such
unfathomable life-changing pain and injustice. Millions of children were torn
away from their enslaved parents each year for 250 years. The number boggles my
mind and pains my soul.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Our nation was founded by
tearing away Native Americans from their land and forcing the survivors on to
reservations. White settlers pushed people into smaller and smaller areas and countless
Indian people were killed and wounded.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once
the carnage was over and the land taken, the government tore thousands of
children away from their parents and forced them into schools where they were cleansed
of their heritage and values. Thousands more children were taken. It was not
until the 1970s till Native Americans and people of conscience ended these
horrific practices. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">So where do I find hope and in this current period of
injustice and cruelty towards immigrants in America?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">As
we have seen in the past, I find hope and inspiration that we, the people, have
risen nearly a thousand demonstrations and protests in one day. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">It is critical for people
of conscience to recognize that the level of resistance to these injustices
today dwarfs the resistance for most of the 250+ years of slavery and the
conquest and dispossession of our Native American brothers and sisters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Our own history can give
us hope and inspiration that we can prevail over injustice and create a more
just and humane future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can do this
if we find hope and inspiration in our own acts of justice and compassion and
inspire others to take action as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despair is our enemy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hope is our
ally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can bring hope to our friends,
families, communities, and unions and inspire them to act.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Do you agree?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is this perspective helpful to you and those
you love?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s us know.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br /></div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-8981285741426021212014-11-05T09:47:00.000-08:002014-11-05T09:51:58.901-08:00Gridlock in Olympia?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Divided government again seems to be the outcome of yesterday's election in Washington State.<br />
<br />
There were no surprises in Washington State Senate races. The Democrats picked up one seat and the Republicans another. Still at a Republican majority of 26-23.<br />
<br />
The shocker was the State House of Representatives. The House's Democrats well-oiled machine was expected to lose few if any seats. But based on last night's count, Republicans may have picked up 4 seats taking the Democratic advantage down to a few votes.<br />
<br />
However, only half the votes are in and a total of 6 seats are within striking distance for either party. Two are very close. Rep. Larry Seaquist (Bremerton) trails Republican Michelle Caldier by only 78 votes. In the 28th district, Democratic newcomer Christine Kilduff (University Place) trails Republican Paul Wagemann by a mere 69 votes. Three Democratic districts are also in play. Kathy Haigh (Shelton) leads by 423 votes, Monica Stonier (Vancouver) trails by 526 votes. and Dawn Morrell (Puyallup) trails by 1,300 votes. The only Republican seat in play could be the open seat in the 41st districts where Democrat Mike Wilson trails Mark Harnsworth by 728 votes.<br />
<br />
So what is the bottom line? House Democrats will hold somewhere between 56 seats and a tie. Most likely outcome? 51-47. </div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-37565294883106353082014-11-04T14:48:00.002-08:002014-11-04T14:49:48.898-08:00Washington State Elections - the Battle for the State Senate <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The 2014 election in Washington State is simply about control of the Washington State Senate. The Governor is not up for reelection and House Democrats appear firmly in control. The State Senate is close. The are currently 23 Democrats and 26 members in the Republican Majority Coalition.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Belleveue/Redmond 48th District of retiring Republican Majority Coalition leader Rodney Tom is almost certain to turn Democratic with Democratic Rep. Cyrus Habib winning 2/3 of the vote in the primary with no serious opposition in the general from the Republican candidate. That takes the count to 24D - 25R. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
To determine which of the remaining races are in play, simply follow the money. The money is being spent in 5 one million dollar plus races: </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>In the 35th district, incumbent and Majority Coalition member Tim Sheldon nearly lost in the primary to a Republican Travis Coture. However, Sheldon is likely to pick up most of the Republican votes in the general. In this near $1,000,000 race, Sheldon has raised nearly a half a million million compared to Democrat Irene Bowling's $300,000. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>With the retirement of Democratic leader Tracey Eide, former seven term Democratic legislator Mark Miloscia has switched parties and is running as a Republican against Democrat Shari Song in the Federal Way 30th district. Miloscia is said to have door-belled every residence in the district at least five times This is yet another million dollar race with Song and Miloscia nearly tied in fundraising. Miloscia got nearly 60% o the vote in the primary. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>In the Lakewood/University place 28th district, Republican Senator Steve O'Ban is being challenged by Rep. Tammi Green. O'Ban was appointed to the position in 2013 after serving in the house for one year. Rep. Green has served 5 terms in the House. O'Ban has outraised Green two to one with $730,000 in contributions at this point. While, O'Ban got 56% of the vote in the primary, Tammi Green has mounted a credible but late campaign. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Up in Whatcom County, Incumbent Republican Doug Ericksen has pulled in over a half a million dollars against Democratic challenger Seth Fleetwood. Erickson got 57% in the primary. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Finally, in the Kirland/Eastside 45th district candidates have raised well over $1,500,000. Incumbent Andy Hill has raised the most of any candidate spending well over a million dollars compared to Matt Isenhower's $500,000 - which is also the top dollar amount raised by a Democrat. Hill got nearly 54% in the primary. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
Republicans have out spent democrats by over a million dollars in these 5 races and it looks like they will win all five races. With the Rodney Tom seat switching to the Democrats, odds are that the Senate will remain 26 R and 23D. What does this mean for Washington State? It has something to do with climate change and K12 education funding.<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-77760263347025457332014-05-06T09:41:00.002-07:002014-05-06T09:41:48.193-07:00Who's unhappy with the Seattle Minimum Wage Hike proposal <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9r-aEAP5O-Qv0HJqZYBIVJZF379yQK4jftITYzCqnwo6YiXo0xR9OhLxkqpmyig8epqiSMKS16n8Ld6HuV2tLU2G2x7SJqcUM-eXO_mfN2c67blr2R4TDYmJF15IuXAqOeeDUFURkCk1P/s1600/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9r-aEAP5O-Qv0HJqZYBIVJZF379yQK4jftITYzCqnwo6YiXo0xR9OhLxkqpmyig8epqiSMKS16n8Ld6HuV2tLU2G2x7SJqcUM-eXO_mfN2c67blr2R4TDYmJF15IuXAqOeeDUFURkCk1P/s1600/Picture1.png" height="320" width="285" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPitpF1AMfuHW_81-yLwNS8z9syMkoOoWO5wS6WFgNuEGp7InDaMTAXyWVnEaoOB5P3FWuTmHRpaWROy6F_568dMSD1WRd4HXMmoXBnQxSSa3ckHu2gFhDGiGSLACvklIAyg746bKPqq6f/s1600/Picture2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPitpF1AMfuHW_81-yLwNS8z9syMkoOoWO5wS6WFgNuEGp7InDaMTAXyWVnEaoOB5P3FWuTmHRpaWROy6F_568dMSD1WRd4HXMmoXBnQxSSa3ckHu2gFhDGiGSLACvklIAyg746bKPqq6f/s1600/Picture2.png" height="320" width="285" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-50988767546105664182014-04-25T09:56:00.002-07:002014-04-25T09:58:14.960-07:00A Region Without Social Capital <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
This morning's paper was filled with depressing news. Our Metro Transit services is facing dramatic cuts due to the voters rejection of Proposition 1 on Tuesday. Washington schools are sending out notices to parents that their schools are failing due to the failure of the legislature to come to agreement on teacher performance standards.The key word here is failure. We have bickered and failed to come to agreement on everything from mass transit to school, arena and state roads and highway funding.<br />
<br />
The Seattle Metro region ranks is one of the most economically vibrant and resilient metro areas in the country ranking 5th in the nation according to the <a href="http://brr.berkeley.edu/rci/metro/index">Institute of Government Studies at the U.C. Berkeley.</a> We also rank 8th in the nation in business environment. But when it comes to community connectivity (you might call this term social capital) we rank 205th in the nation. When it comes to income equality we rank 105th in the nation. <br />
<br />
The bottom line is that the Seattle Region lacks the glue that brings people together. We lack the social capital to get things done. Our business community lacks the interest in solving big regional problems. Pollsters tell us that we are the most anti-tax blue state in the country. Perhaps much of this has to do with the fact that we are a in-migration state. People come here from elsewhere bringing their education with them and maybe just don't feel invested in our education and governmental institutions. Maybe we are just a bunch of know-it-alls who think we are the only ones with the real answers. <br />
<br />
Whatever the cause, I think the real problem is trust. Our citizens lack both trust in government and in each other. This is a serious and expensive problem. Failure to make long term investments will hurt all of us.<br />
<br /></div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-81117557484018794672013-05-06T12:22:00.000-07:002013-05-06T12:22:04.615-07:00The Future is So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
We have been facing two powerful and counteracting economic forces in the last couple of months. The negative force has been the cuts in government spending resulting from sequestration, the end of the stimulus funds and cuts in state and local government budgets. This has been accompanied the expiration of the payroll tax cut in January. The payroll tax increase is a powerful negative stimulus since the gains from the tax cut mostly went to high spending low and middle income families.<br />
<br />
The counter-acting force has been a revival of the animal spirits of capitalism. Business confidence has shot upward and firms have begun to increase investment and hiring after four years of stagnation. This may have started out as the result of pent-up demand in household formation, inventories and aging equipment. But the good news is that these forces have revived the animal spirits of capitalists. Companies who were sitting on cash waiting for more certainty in the future, seem to believe that the future is bright. <br />
<br />
Right now, the more powerful force is the animal spirits. The media will take a long time to adjust to reporting good economic news. The economic story has been bad economic news for so long, analysts will have trouble making the shift to a different mentality. But eventually, the conventional wisdom will shift and the recovery may actually begin to accelerate. </div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-81436554868215802642013-04-15T10:03:00.000-07:002013-04-15T10:03:02.188-07:00The Short Run and the Long Run <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
One of the biggest points of confusion in the deficit debate is the long run versus the short run. In the long run we have an entitlement driven budget problem that is solvable but politically problematic. In the short run we have a inadequate effective demand problem is that is related to both tax increases (the payroll taxes) and the animal spirits of consumers and investors (which is resulting in weak spending). <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Most analysts want it one way or another. Conservatives want to deny the stimulus problem and focus on shrinking government. This is not a surprise, a small government has always been their goal. Many liberals believe the entitlement problem is something that we should ignore for now and would instead focus on job creation. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Obama has it right in his budget proposal. Stimulate demand now with infrastructure investments that bolster the long-run economy. But at the same time, agree to future long-term cuts to entitlements. This has the effective of calming markets and perhaps stimulating the animal spirits of capitalists allowing in an additional increase in investment. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-82479859053049496512013-03-06T10:28:00.002-08:002013-03-06T10:28:51.977-08:00Complexity and Financial Aid: A Barrier to College Completion<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="PadderBetweenControlandBody">
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Behavioral factors often play a bigger role in
decision-making than financial or economic factors. For example, all of us tend
to discount current losses compared to future gains. This factor, known as
“hyperbolic discounting,” is true for all of us. We are unlikely to risk 50
cents today for $1.00 next year despite the return on investment. Consequently, more than 80% of all Americans have
a negative personal savings rate. This
tendency becomes magnified for low income families where earnings are barely
able to keep up with daily life expenses. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">All of us are loss averse. Potential losses loom larger than
gains. We overvalue what we already have and discount what we may get in the
future. Research on loss aversion
indicates that we require gains equal to double of that of the current loss.
That factor is magnified again when the loss is potentially ruinous or your
lifestyle is threatened.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5306022180622878460#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Let’s
say your income is $45,000 a year, are you willing to lose $35,000 right now in
exchange for $15,000 in additional income over the next ten years? That is the risk many low-income students
face. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">We also tend to base our decisions on our experiences rather
than theoretical projections offered by other people. Lower-income families have little experience
with college and thus the gains seem far more uncertain. The combination of risk aversion and
complexity not only leads to an aversion to borrowing but an aversion to
seeking and receiving financial aid. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">When confronted with a high risk decisions like investing in
college, small barriers can become huge barriers. This starts with the process
of seeking financial aid. According to the Advisory Committee on Student
Financial Assistance, “Millions of students and adult learners who aspire to
college are overwhelmed by the complexity of student aid. Uncertainty and
confusion rob them of its significant benefits. Rather than promote access,
studies show that aid often creates a series of barriers - a gauntlet that the
poorest students must run to get to college.” <a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5306022180622878460#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpduPBaqtO-I5ltMMC3WxyLl0RJSCBCB5EFaf3dI9KLHAVN3HfaGtEM7ufiyC_WQdLSTvZVw6ZpIgUXTARUfZkpsc4d3QRF1GZYAdVzNv13Wxscu70pk7JxbSv2bqoRo2mWmTb1FCpMWpS/s1600/complexity.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpduPBaqtO-I5ltMMC3WxyLl0RJSCBCB5EFaf3dI9KLHAVN3HfaGtEM7ufiyC_WQdLSTvZVw6ZpIgUXTARUfZkpsc4d3QRF1GZYAdVzNv13Wxscu70pk7JxbSv2bqoRo2mWmTb1FCpMWpS/s320/complexity.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5306022180622878460#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"> Hahnemann, (2011) <i>Thinking
Fast and Slow </i>Farrar, Strauss and
Giroux<i> <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5306022180622878460#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance. (2005).
“The Student Aid Gauntlet: Making Access to College Simple and Certain.” Final
Report of the Special Study of Simplification </span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">Of Need Analysis and Application for Title IV Aid.
Washington, D.C.: Department of</span></div>
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Education.</span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-11491964781508443662013-03-05T09:54:00.000-08:002013-03-05T09:54:02.512-08:00The Cost of College <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The
most important indicator of regional economic success is the number of residents
who have completed a college degree or certificate. The problem is that the economic payoff from
college occurs after completion of the program, so the costs precede the
benefit. And the costs are substantial. Tuition
and fees at Washington Community and Technical Colleges have risen by 50% over
the past five years.<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> The
average cost of tuition, books, fees <i>and the
cost of living<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
</i>for community and technical college students in Washington State is $17,044.<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Even
low income independent students actually receiving Pell Grants and the State
Need Grants face an average unmet need of $6,400 per year.<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
This imposes an unsustainable burden on low-income and low middle income
students. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Perhaps most importantly, eligibility for Pell Grants, low
interest Stafford Loans and the Washington State Need Grant is limited to families
with incomes of under roughly $40,000. For example, a grocery clerk with a
child earning $45,000 per year would be ineligible for aid. Lost earnings for attending college as well
as other college costs would take up over 40% of the family’s income. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn0Rey8K1D3ozo2Ys6x3CfOxYDDZjDLmda3EyQAUBe5iiY9TC-0FiadsSMfhHJcuXH4g5TRHxbWayocWOOMX2_P5byCeDXB_FHMCG1COK0nbCzMmGEKtHIlclGu0JahmTClDiEuyEdTSbz/s1600/cost+of+college.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn0Rey8K1D3ozo2Ys6x3CfOxYDDZjDLmda3EyQAUBe5iiY9TC-0FiadsSMfhHJcuXH4g5TRHxbWayocWOOMX2_P5byCeDXB_FHMCG1COK0nbCzMmGEKtHIlclGu0JahmTClDiEuyEdTSbz/s400/cost+of+college.bmp" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The obvious solution would be to expand traditional financial
aid programs, which have failed to keep up with the soaring cost of college. The
proportion of college costs covered by Pell Grants has fallen dramatically over
the past 30 years, and now cover the lowest portion of costs in histor</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">y. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">In the state of
Washington, budget cuts to the State Need Grant have left 32,000 students, or
30% of the eligible students, without aid. And as a result of federal budget cuts in
2011, Federal Pell Grants no longer cover summer programs. <span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" title="">[5]</a></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Unfortunately, both state and federal budgets are shrinking and Washington voters show little interest in making college more affordable. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There needs to be a creative way out of this box. Some kind of creative loan package might work. However, many working adults have little history or
understanding of personal finance and borrowing. Students fear indebtedness in a time of high
unemployment and mortgage foreclosures. Many colleges have not offered federal
students loans because of penalties related to the high default rate. Private loans are only offered at very high
interests, if at all, for lower income working adults. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div>
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <br clear="all" />
</span><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2012, <i>Key Facts About Higher Education in
Washington.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> The cost of living is included in this figure since
students who work more than half time are unlikely to complete programs.
Program completion requires students to forgo earnings to attend college. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Scott Copeland, State Board for Community and Technical Colleges, July
9, 2012; Higher Education Coordinating Board, January 2004, <a href="http://www.wsac.wa.gov/sites/default/files/KeyFacts2004-Revised.pdf#search="average cost of college"">Key
facts about higher education in Washington</a> (adjusted for
inflation) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Washington State Higher Education Loan Program Work
Group, December 2012, <i>Higher Education
Loan Program Legislative Report<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn5">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Washington State Higher Education Coordinating Board,
January 2012, Access, Affordability, Achievement: Annual Report on State
Financial Aid Programs </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-40067960359161036072013-03-04T14:37:00.001-08:002013-03-04T14:37:44.226-08:00 Working Adults are Today’s Community College Students <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The profile of college students in the minds of policy-makers today is an eighteen year old who lives at home and is going to school full
time. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Nothing could be further from the truth. Community college students (and
university students as well) are older, often with dependents, and going to
school part time while they are working. Unfortunately, policy-makers have
designed tuition and financial aid around the needs of single, recent high
school graduates. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The median age of
Seattle Community Colleges students is almost 30. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Almost a fifth are immigrants, over 30% have
dependents, a quarter are working full time and well over half are working part
time or more.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">A majority are students of
color. For the entire post-secondary system in Washington State, almost 40% of
the students are over the age of 30. Two-thirds of the students who entered
college at age 25 or older are low income.</span><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> In
Seattle, only 5% of community college students have entered directly from high
school.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Demographics<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Seattle Central <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Seattle North<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Seattle South<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Seattle Vocational Institute <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Washington State Community Colleges <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Immigrants
or refugees <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">18.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 8.6% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 9.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">17.5%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 8.4% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Single
with Children <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 7.0% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 7.0% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">27%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Couples
with Children <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">12%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">23%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">23%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 9%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">19%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Work
Full time <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">18%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 7% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">17%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Work
Part Time <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">26%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">26%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">20%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">13%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">26%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Median
age <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">27<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">26
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over
age 30<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">37%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 139.85pt;" valign="top" width="186">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Students
of Color <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.15pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">55%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">39%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.0pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">52%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 64.2pt;" valign="top" width="86">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">83%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.6pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">36.3%
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="6" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in;" valign="top" width="638">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Source:
Washington State Board for Community and Technical Colleges, Data Warehouse,
2011<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">However, college programs and financial aid are not designed to meet the needs of today's students. Adult friendly evening and weekend schedules exist at many colleges but are significantly less common than traditional school schedules. Child care is rarely provided on campus and financial aid programs are geared towards traditional college registration schedules. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Most importantly, these workers will still be a
majority of the workforce for the next quarter century yet many lack the skills to compete. </span><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> If our goal is to succeed in global competition over the next decade,
we need to begin thinking about how to retool our college system to meet the needs of the workforce. </span></div>
<div>
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br clear="all" />
</span><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Prince and Jenkins, April 2005, <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fccrc.tc.columbia.edu%2FDefaultFiles%2FSendFileToPublic.asp%3Fft%3Dpdf%26FilePath%3Dc%3A%255CWebsites%255Cccrc_tc_columbia_edu_documents%255C332_288.pdf%26fid%3D332_288%26aid%3D47%26RID%3D288%26pf%3DContentByType.asp%3Ft%3D1&ei=e2nCUOyyKqKeiALutoDYDA&usg=AFQjCNEVx_mOzQBwCu_ydu5qNhyK85C6qA&sig2=B-iqgzFWQdcOWGugU52lwA&bvm=bv.1354675689,d.cGE"><i>Building
Pathways to Success for Low-Skill Adult students</i></a><i>, </i>CCRC Brief, <i><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/nafziger/My%20Documents/express/nafziger%20paper%20with%20exec%20summary%202.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Thanks to Robert Baker, Economist, Division of
Forecasting, and Washington Office of Financial Management for help in
calculating labor participation and population data... </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-74335734162489734042012-08-19T11:02:00.001-07:002012-08-19T11:02:44.608-07:00We Take Care of Our Own <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As Bruce Springsteen points out in his recent song, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>We Take Care of Our Own</i>, American don't seem to have much tolerance for moral hazard when it comes to the social safety net.</span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">I've been knockin' on the door that holds the throne </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">I've been lookin' for the map that leads me home </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">I've been stumblin' on good hearts turned to stone </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">The road of good intentions has gone dry as bone </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">We take care of our own </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">We take care of our own </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">Wherever this flag's flown </span><br style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: #474747; line-height: 23px; text-align: left;">We take care of our own </span>
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite a long great recession, rising poverty and high unemployment, Americans persist in their belief that the poor are culpable for their own plight. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nothing divides Americans more than attitudes towards the poor. </span><a href="http://www.npr.org/programs/specials/poll/poverty/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A recent Kaiser/Kennedy</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> School pool on the causes of poverty asks the question, "</span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which is the bigger cause of poverty today — that people are not doing enough to help themselves out of poverty, or that circumstances beyond their control cause them to be poor?" </b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Americans are split down the middle on this one. 48% says the poor aren't doing enough and 45% say circumstance beyond their control. This issue almost defines the difference between Republicans and Democrats - Republicans go 63-31 on not doing enough while Democrats end up 57-37 on circumstances. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not surprisingly, Europeans with their vastly more expanded welfare state, go for circumstances by more than a 2 to 1 margin. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Americans who believe the poor aren't doing enough are worried about moral hazard. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Moral hazard <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;">hazard arises when an individual does not take the full consequences and responsibilities for their actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than they otherwise would, leaving another party to hold some responsibility for the consequences of those actions. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;">The social safety net provides assistance to people who for one reason or another have fallen on hard times. Divorce or pregnancy might lead to poverty for a single woman with a child. Mental illness including addiction might lead to the loss of a job and eventually a home. A serious illness could lead to bankruptcy and poverty. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;"> During today's recession, long periods of unemployment leave people with few or little resources to make ends meet. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;">The degree to which the safety net helps or hurts a person varies. In some cases, the availability of unemployment insurance, welfare, food stamps or other benefits might lead to people postponing their job search, or avoid seeking mediation in marriage. The assistance could insulate people from the adverse consequences of their actions. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;">The problem is that there is no way to calculate the absolute level of moral hazard in social programs. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;">In reality, most safety net programs benefit a mix of people and thus a wide mix of motivations and behaviors. The public policy question is does the amount of moral hazard created by the program exceed the net benefit to those in need? How much moral hazard are we willing to tolerate to meet the need of those in real need? If there are 500,000 people on food stamps and 25 of them use the stamps at a casino, should the program be curtailed cutting off another 25,000 people to prevent the abuse? </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;">Unfortunately, most people derive the answer to this policy question based on values or ideology rather than empirical data. As we can see from the recent survey on the causes of poverty, the question of moral hazard versus needs essentially defines the two political parties in the U.S. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.196969985961914px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.183332443237305px;">Those who believe in moral character versus circumstances continue to hold to their beliefs even as conditions change radically. It doesn't matter if unemployment is 4% or 8% or if poverty rates change from 11% to 16% - the conclusion is always the same - the safety net will lead insulate people from taking action to change their situation. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.183332443237305px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.183332443237305px;">Today, in one of the hardest times in American history, a near majority of Americans appear to have little or no tolerance for moral hazard. For them, taking care of our own is merely a crutch. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.183332443237305px;"><br /></span></span>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-29579598200862659342012-08-08T21:14:00.000-07:002012-08-20T15:59:32.785-07:00The Political Agenda<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpqfuApDqYaLmdVyGQh-HNh1OJgcR219AGpmQbr9aDowFC1jL7GWNApxU0u3pgQAlsnbbSBViMk7UwF7ftaLgqj3yJI6j8KSMMxi8KrRh2F1pAZQwm7JMQH_VYaaIca9i1pm2mYOkn-lzT/s1600/kingdon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpqfuApDqYaLmdVyGQh-HNh1OJgcR219AGpmQbr9aDowFC1jL7GWNApxU0u3pgQAlsnbbSBViMk7UwF7ftaLgqj3yJI6j8KSMMxi8KrRh2F1pAZQwm7JMQH_VYaaIca9i1pm2mYOkn-lzT/s1600/kingdon.png" /></a></div>
<span style="font-style: normal;">What determine what gets on the political agenda at the national, state and local level? Which issues get to be debated and considered, which never see the light of day? <br /><br />The most common answer to this question is interest groups. Interest groups invest money in campaigns and then in lobbying and their issues get considered and often accepted by policy-makers. There is no doubt that they exert enormous clout in determining the outcome of public policy issues. However, I really don't think it is that simple. I don't think interest groups or even political parties actually get to decide most of what is considered in government. Looking at the policy agenda in the U.S. the key issues appear to be jobs and the economy, health care, gay marriage, immigration, education and the budget deficit . While interest groups may play a disproportionate role in determining many of the alternatives that are considered to solve these problems, they don't get to pick which ones draw the attention of policy-makers.<br /><br />Author and professor, John Kingdon in his classic works </span><i><a href="http://www.pearsonhighered.com/educator/product/Agendas-Alternatives-and-Public-Policies-Update-Edition-with-an-Epilogue-on-Health-Care/9780205000869.page">Agendas, Alternative and Public Policy</a> </i>identifies three policy streams that most often need to come together for an issue to be seriously considered by policy-makers.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
1. Problems - problems come up and have to be dealt with. I worked with a former Federal Reserve Board economist during the Locke Administration who was always frustrated that the Governor's agenda never seemed to stay the course. For him, it was always issue du jour. You are working on economic development and then all of sudden energy prices skyrocket and you have to drop it and work on energy issues. Problems become the focus because citizens expect elected officials to deal with them. But problems in themselves aren't enough. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
2. Solutions - if a policy-maker is going to consider an issue, she is going to want to know that the problem can be solved. Otherwise, an enormous amount of political capital will be spent and you will end up looking pretty foolish. The property tax is unfair because it doesn't include the value of financial assets in the valuation of property. But how would you do it? Could you administer it or would cheating be so prominent it wouldn't be worth it? Tornadoes, earthquakes and Tsunamis are horrible events that should be stopped, but can you? A more realistic example might be health care reform - in a country so ideological devoted to the free market, can you have a solution that doesn't involve government ownership?<br />
<br />
3. Politics - there has to be the right political alignment for the issue to move through the political process. Somebody or some people who are policy-makers have to make it a priority. Health care reform wasn't politically ripe during the Cater Administration because it wasn't the priority of the president and the political mood of the country was souring on government solutions. On the other hand, the election of Barak Obama was accompanied by large majorities in the House and the Senate and Obama made it the #1 priority of his administration. Climate change was clearly on the agenda in 2008 with major Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the President seeking legislation. But the 2008 recession knocked it off the agenda as concerns moved away from the environmental protection to it's effect on jobs.<br />
<br />
Politicians who understand these forces are often said to have a good sense of timing. An advocate for education reform might hold off on passing major investments in education because they know that during a severe budget crisis there is no viable financial solution. But when the economy improves, and revenues are back on track, they may have a solution in hand and will work ensure that the public sees that it is a problem worth solving. When that time comes, they will jump on any news on comparative test scores or school failures try and put the issue on the agenda. Advocates for small government jumped on their chance to shrink government when the great recession and tax cuts led to huge budget deficits.<br />
<br />
Given the problems we are facing today, the political climate and the availability of realistic solutions, what issues might be ripe for getting on the agenda? <br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-67690330438433503632012-04-30T13:15:00.000-07:002012-04-30T13:29:20.086-07:00Why is there so little emphasis on college cost containment?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvvkW6uYaSt_RB0M562CuoVNJ8OzRsgkD3mfrp76zoV4Un65HrtkZ_5-P-b_LXHVF6-Ybz_TcZhaAZRHVw-2LzqQUcqlEK-sRUTWSKLknW-Zfy8Zzrt4Vj-avVNkaimH3gO3O8KjOZ0Yuc/s1600/InflationTuitionMedicalGeneral1978to2008.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvvkW6uYaSt_RB0M562CuoVNJ8OzRsgkD3mfrp76zoV4Un65HrtkZ_5-P-b_LXHVF6-Ybz_TcZhaAZRHVw-2LzqQUcqlEK-sRUTWSKLknW-Zfy8Zzrt4Vj-avVNkaimH3gO3O8KjOZ0Yuc/s320/InflationTuitionMedicalGeneral1978to2008.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Over the past 30 years one of the biggest issues policy-makers have been wrestling with is the issue of health care costs and health care access. Policy-makers have been gradually expanding access to health care starting with medicare and medicaid adding on medicare coverage of drugs, medicaid expansions by state and medicaid expansions for children. But even more prominent has been the emphasis on reducing healthcare costs. Over the years, cost-saving institutions such as HMOs have sprung up and the new health care law encourage competitive exchanges and evidence-based medicine as strategies to reduce costs. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Health care cost inflation pales in comparison with the cost of higher education. Between 1978 and 2008, tuition has increased 9 fold while medical costs have risen 6-fold and inflation has tripled. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The cost of college dwarfs all costs including oil over the past 34 years. The last four years have made it worst as the recession has slowed medical inflation and the CPI but tuition has continued to sky-rocket as lawmakers push even more college costs off taxpayers onto students. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Health care policy started out much like higher education with little or no emphasis on cost. Doctors were beyond reproach and meddling in the work of medical industries was playing with human lives. But then along came evidence-based medicine which not only began to question to the efficiency of medical procedures but their efficacy as well. Higher costs procedures were often found to be worst for patient health. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Up till now, higher education has dodged the conversation on both costs and outcomes. Isn't it about time we started thinking about it? Are the only options cutting instruction and dumping more costs on students? </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-31983966822377533162012-04-29T13:30:00.001-07:002012-04-29T13:30:44.791-07:00Combined Federal and State Tax Regressivity<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD4pnFIL-wnnxqIlYYOCS_9zmICUSi-SRvamhjkUxuPZ8yGtzgXsZ9QMXRzZ34N_kiSxZmtMqCcZCPt5IVEFW6enB5-RXhtfF9QC8L6kvRmxiWEjjXRYMslFdMo9g5xhLvtbKD78OmGzCT/s1600/state+and+federal+taxes.jpg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD4pnFIL-wnnxqIlYYOCS_9zmICUSi-SRvamhjkUxuPZ8yGtzgXsZ9QMXRzZ34N_kiSxZmtMqCcZCPt5IVEFW6enB5-RXhtfF9QC8L6kvRmxiWEjjXRYMslFdMo9g5xhLvtbKD78OmGzCT/s320/state+and+federal+taxes.jpg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf2PqxLa7lqHbcxL45oiV0rPHL01BfSpva9gByYKqarV8hDptfekZRVIBpiirPx4EZEpiDu9k3wB07N9c6IEdRbsZ-TYJSB9CEwUmO8wpCc0CAlKWjgM_Q5518PmvXOYg27JfejeOnJEi4/s1600/state+and+federal+taxes+combined.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf2PqxLa7lqHbcxL45oiV0rPHL01BfSpva9gByYKqarV8hDptfekZRVIBpiirPx4EZEpiDu9k3wB07N9c6IEdRbsZ-TYJSB9CEwUmO8wpCc0CAlKWjgM_Q5518PmvXOYg27JfejeOnJEi4/s320/state+and+federal+taxes+combined.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
There has been a fair amount of research done on the regressivity of Washington taxes.<a href="http://dor.wa.gov/content/aboutus/statisticsandreports/wataxstudy/Chapter_4.pdf"> The Gates Commission report</a> concluded in 2007, "Most people agree that fairness requires relative tax burdens on households (taxes as a percentage of household income) to be the same for all households, or higher for households with higher incomes (i.e., a progressive tax system). Correspondingly, a tax system that imposes higher relative burdens on households with lower incomes (i.e., a regressive tax system) is considered inequitable. Washington's tax structure is regressive. The lowest income households pay 15.7 percent of income for total excise and property taxes, while the highest income households pay 4.4 percent of income for the same taxes. Sales tax is the main cause of regressivity.<br />
<br />
Our state's system is pretty much the opposite of the federal system. Despite all the recent rhetoric about tax inequality at the federal level, the fact remains that the federal system is progressive. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the top 1% pays an average of 31% of their income in taxes and the bottom 20%, pays about 4%. This includes the federal income tax, the incidence of the federal corporate, federal excise taxes and federal payroll taxes for social security and medicaid.<br />
<br />
State taxes are quite regressive with top 1% paying about 1.8% of taxes and the bottom 20% paying 17% of their income in taxes.<br />
<br />
When you combine the two results, the bottom line (the second chart above) is that the state tax system cancels out almost all of the progressivity of the federal system. This is not true of taxes in other states. On average, taxes in other states are slightly progressive.<br />
<br />
Washingtonians often seems themselves living in a "progressive" state. When it comes to paying for government, that is far from the case. </div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-51674709076083943972012-04-27T19:01:00.000-07:002012-04-28T08:07:53.835-07:00The Federal Minimum Wage<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQjD0wcIwfmWF4EhFiDM9I1vYB3DEJKuF00DFlMGWdXTN4V31Adse8FzCcJG_RlvXDtoMgB28w7Jqv3PNvwa3HJq60jtTje_2TydJG-bXc_GAjehuJtYn6JKQOfAiliytsO6NlgPhP74FZ/s1600/mini.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQjD0wcIwfmWF4EhFiDM9I1vYB3DEJKuF00DFlMGWdXTN4V31Adse8FzCcJG_RlvXDtoMgB28w7Jqv3PNvwa3HJq60jtTje_2TydJG-bXc_GAjehuJtYn6JKQOfAiliytsO6NlgPhP74FZ/s320/mini.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Bloomberg Business Week on their opinion page e<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/oct2006/db20061018_940534.htm">ditorialized in favor of raising the minimum </a>wage to as a level as high as $9.80 an hour and with a CPI escalator. Business Week writers argued that a "A low-wage bias is creeping into the economy" where in many cases minimum wage jobs are all that is available. The article argued that raising the minimum wage would have a "wage ladder" effect where employers would bump up salaries for slightly higher-paid employees too.<br />
<br />
Throughout the United States, states have become passed minimum wages higher than the federal rate of $7.25 an hour. The variability of state rates along state border areas has given economists access to new empirical data from which to study the impact of the wage hike on employment.<a href="http://www.irle.berkeley.edu/workingpapers/157-07.pdf"> A team of Berkeley economists</a> looked at changes in wages and employment in contiguous counties on both sides of state borders with variable minimum wages. The consolidated data showed little if any employment impacts from state who raised their minimum wage.<br />
<br />
According to Business Week, "The Federal minimum wage was always meant to be a floor, not a ceiling. Today, someone earnings the minimum would have to work 749 hours to afford one year of health insurance premiums and 923 hours to afford a year's tuition at a public four year university.<br />
<br />
Washington State already has the highest minimum wage in the country at $9.04 per hour. The Washington wage also has a CPI escalator which adjusts the wage with the Seattle Consumer Price Index. A prominent federal minimum wage bill sponsored by Senator Tom Harkin would raise the federal wage to $9.80 an hour.<br />
<br />
Most of the strategies for improving living standards focus on education as the solution. For a large portion of the labor market, that makes a lot of sense. But our economy will always have a large, low-skill, low-paying labor market where education and skills will not lead to higher wages. For this sector, we have to focus on economic justice. The rest of us in society should pay a bit more for our services in order to ensure that all Americans have enough to live on.<br />
<br /></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-78727662085419049082012-04-25T10:01:00.001-07:002012-04-30T13:16:54.644-07:00Why do we tax business?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">There is probably nothing more important to an individual or household today than a good, stable job. In countless surveys, nothing yields greater unhappiness than unemployment. There is good reason to believe that state policy-makers should focus on this issue above all others.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Creating and sustaining good jobs is all about competitive advantage. It means producing high quality goods at the lowest possible cost. It is simply about productivity. Taxes may not be the most important factor in global competitiveness but they are a factor that policy-makers can actually control.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Why do we tax business? There are a couple of theories that are used to justify business taxes. One theory is benefits received. We tax business to insure that the price of goods reflects the social costs are spent on creating that good. These costs would include water, sewage, public safety, environmental protection and a skilled workforce. Many of these goods are goods that corporations receive for free but somebody has to pay for them - taxpayers. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Another theory is ability to pay. Businesses should pay their share of taxes based on their ability to pay taxes. Since business owners make a lot of money, we can indirectly tax them by taxing their business.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Economists say that taxes have the effect of creating inefficiencies in both the process of production and in the distribution of goods. Taxes will change the mix of goods produced. Taxes create a deadweight loss in our economy by reducing the consumer and producer surplus by more than the actual amount of the tax itself. </span><br />
<span style="line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="line-height: 19px;">I</span><span style="line-height: 19px;">n general, taxes are most efficient when they fall on those who have the most difficulty avoiding them. Big corporations can and do spend an enormous resources shifting avoiding taxes and the government spends enormous amounts of resources trying to make rules to stop them. They also spend enormous amounts of money on lobbyists to get them special tax breaks.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">But most importantly, in a global economy business taxes can reduce competitiveness. They either reduce the amount of capital invested in a company or they increase the price of the good. In today's hyper competitive markets, small price differentials matter.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">What if we created a serious competitive advantage for Washington by simply eliminating all business taxes. We could replace the taxes by fees on specific services and progressive taxes on individuals.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Many of the benefits received by businesses are already captured by specific fees on those services. The costs of sewage, water, electricity, and roads are already charged directly to businesses based on actual usage. Supply and demand for the specific service determine the price. We could extend this approach to directly charging businesses for additional services like education. Or perhaps we could even charge a large proportion of those services to individuals who earn money from companies rather than the companies themselves.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;">You can't tax a corporation; you can only tax a person</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"> </span>Ultimately all of the earnings of businesses go to individuals in the forms of interest, dividends, profits or wages. Rather than trying to indirectly get at that revenue through business taxes, why don't we just tax the income those individuals earn. The tax is thus based on the individuals ability to pay. There is no distortion on the productive process, no change in the mix of goods produced and no competitive disadvantage in global competition. The deadweight loss to the economy from business taxation is eliminated. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">If this is such a good idea why haven't we done this already? I would venture to guess is that policy-makers have never offered this specific trade-off. Given the condition of our economy today, perhaps now is the time to look at it.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span><br />
<br /></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-46968344788214051342012-03-01T11:07:00.002-08:002012-03-01T11:15:44.734-08:00The Deficit and the Great RecessionI've thought about this for awhile, and I've come to the conclusion that the solution to the current deficit versus growth problem is pretty simple. Right now, the problem is growth. We appear to be finally in a nascent recovery. The stock market broke 13,000 for several days now. Unemployment claims have moved downward to an average which will bring down unemployment Fourth quarter economic growth is now measured at a healthy 3%. <br /><br />Let me stress the word nascent. Now is still not the time to focus on deficit reduction. A contraction of government spending could send growth down into low digits and continue our economic stagnation. We need to maintain our current level of spending with longer unemployment benefits, the payroll tax deduction and maintenance of key safety net programs that will boost spending. <br /><br />After growth appears to have stabilized, the problem for economic policy-makers should shift to inflation. All the money pumped into the economy will begin to tighten. This is now the time to begin cutting the deficit. You do this for two reasons. One to slow economic growth and prevent inflation. The other is to ensure that current generation pays its economic debts rather than shifting them to our kids.Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-32388790449882467662012-01-22T08:56:00.000-08:002012-01-22T15:46:28.880-08:00The Eurozone Crisis - Things are not always what they seem<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSozftDRwyRoVCqeNOn4zqQICQdjxDYS8a1Mfrc6APxGd4E8WnKkyE2yo3MioB4pzRpRpGvZuI83PXHWNImJW_11l2ToOMI-NbIuKWrg1DI0SXIYaW4BPqKdkiFs3jvejuRo0RYnj_6wME/s1600/capital+formation.png"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSozftDRwyRoVCqeNOn4zqQICQdjxDYS8a1Mfrc6APxGd4E8WnKkyE2yo3MioB4pzRpRpGvZuI83PXHWNImJW_11l2ToOMI-NbIuKWrg1DI0SXIYaW4BPqKdkiFs3jvejuRo0RYnj_6wME/s320/capital+formation.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700552509773932194" /></a>
<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjStpV2WXU2adOx7ZuJrxkknpL3escLUvBF7zndw84nXZCCIcRd-JwdL1AbqiboHiIJmQQygd4_g24swrpQml11VzUD9RmB4yYgIKtHMnBexX4lX1MsnsBW0bbCRUKB2sI1TNqrcqjAUIyp/s1600/debt.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjStpV2WXU2adOx7ZuJrxkknpL3escLUvBF7zndw84nXZCCIcRd-JwdL1AbqiboHiIJmQQygd4_g24swrpQml11VzUD9RmB4yYgIKtHMnBexX4lX1MsnsBW0bbCRUKB2sI1TNqrcqjAUIyp/s320/debt.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700552398068496674" /></a>
<br />
<br />
<br />The popular story that has circulated in the richest countries is that this is <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/neo-calvinists-and-the-euro-crisis/">a morality tale</a>. The extravagant behavior of the Irish and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzpHvLWFUM">Mediterranean Countries</a> led to the crisis. Rather than working,they danced, rather than saving and investing, they spent. (known here as the Zorba the Greek Syndrome).
<br />
<br />After the fall of communism, Germany, France, and other more developed countries sought to integrate Eastern Europe as well as countries on the periphery like Greece, Italy, Greece and Spain into the European economy. The Euro was created to avoid currency fluctuations and improve stability in trade.
<br />
<br />The problem was that there was a European monetary system but separate fiscal systems in each country. This worked out fine until the stress of the great recessions exposed the weakness of the alliance. The nations on the periphery failed to manage their economies, spent more then they could afford and failed to invest. This led to a huge debt that would be difficult or possible to pay back. <a href="<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--TABdLsWSU">Follow this link to a comic version of the story</a>
<br />
<br />Consequently, the banks who had purchased government bonds from those countries were facing potential defaults from the peripheral countries. The potential of huge losses spread fear of a contagion that would lead to widespread bank failures throughout Europe and a double dip recession. Only through the generosity of the richer countries could Europe be saved from the proliferous periphery.
<br />
<br />Here's the problem, with the exception of Greece, the debt problems of the peripheral countries was not much worse and in some cases better than the wealthier European countries. Furthermore, the moral faults of those nations was clearly misplaced. Investment and capital formation was as great or greater and the work ethic actually appears stronger (see the above graphs).
<br />
<br />Then what was the cause of the crisis? The answer appears to be quite the opposite. The alternative explanation is that the adoption of the Euro resulted in a flow of capital to the periphery to take advantage of the cheaper labor and new markets. When the recession hit, the capital reversed it's direction leaving a massive current accounts deficit. Since all of the counties had one currency, they were unable to devalue their currency to balance the outflow. I'll cover more this in my next blog. Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-64733315368560375502011-12-15T14:24:00.000-08:002011-12-15T16:07:08.312-08:00Productive and Unproductive Labor<div><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQ2rKwqCLJsNssrp1lHyPh2aT5wMNxE90noAfkTKF8fmtaorCyjmmY8sxAetYZ2GJn9sCcTjeoB_lMMOklRdMdNXm8npBOA86NtM1Pba7R7hElsT0Qv4d1PqSU1X9mRZSTdK1ZZMncIfJ/s1600/net+income+and+estimates+bonuse.png"><img style="width: 320px; height: 289px; cursor: pointer;" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5686484788031253298" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQ2rKwqCLJsNssrp1lHyPh2aT5wMNxE90noAfkTKF8fmtaorCyjmmY8sxAetYZ2GJn9sCcTjeoB_lMMOklRdMdNXm8npBOA86NtM1Pba7R7hElsT0Qv4d1PqSU1X9mRZSTdK1ZZMncIfJ/s320/net+income+and+estimates+bonuse.png" /></a><br /><div></div></div><br /><br />I'm definitely guilty of overusing the above graph but what it illustrates so well is the level of greed that motivated the leaders of the world's investment banks. Their bonuses were so large that they eventually exceeded the net income of their companies bankrupting the companies and allowing them to escape with billions as they helped bring down the world economy. <br /><br />This is an example of a problem that is ill-described in traditional economics - the problem of unproductive versus productive labor. In the case of the financial crisis, it appears that a larger and larger proportion of our nation's output was siphoned off to a growing parasitical class which used their very rich human capital to create new financial instruments and marketing techniques which in fact created no wealth. In fact, they appeared to have destroyed a lot of human, physical and financial capital in a process that added nothing to our society.<br /><br />The concept of productive versus unproductive labor has a history in Marxist economics. In Marx's complex and unfinished work, Theories of Surplus Value, in Chapter 4, Marx lays out a description of what he believed added value to the economy and what appeared to subtract value from society. <br /><br />Marx made a couple of big mistakes here. One was that capitalists (or today's entrepreneurs or managers) didn't add value, only labor did. He assumed that the creativity, acumen and management ability of a capitalists was no different than any other kind of labor. There is considerable evidence that the risk-taking and management expertise of capitalists is perhaps a different factor of production than other forms of labor.<br /><br />However, his analysis of finance capital appears particularly germane today. Thomas Philippon in an article last month "Has the U.S. Finance Industry Become Less Efficient?, argues that, "Surprisingly, the finance industry has become less efficient: the unit cost of intermediation is higher today than it was a century ago. Improvements in information technology seem to have been cancelled out by increases in trading activities whose social value is difficult to assess." <br /><br />The sad part of Phillippon's analysis is that wasted capital in finance does not seem to have diminished as the great recession has dragged on. The question appears to be, Have we learned anything?Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-69150519079526054542011-11-25T09:16:00.000-08:002011-11-25T09:40:56.277-08:00The Deficit- Creating our Own Nightmare<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMYkkR2Alqpltw6lAx68z0qxZHCgz3tMPmYHPQxLt6BkjKvlKo6Ho63VSWsUZZPUBgZ5W1ygN76g2hYXyhIgcwCEX0Akq3JtmfzuJWiJphlXQtZlgix7rvyp9G3b_Phastv9ilpEjkSQEk/s1600/SummaryFigure1.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 217px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMYkkR2Alqpltw6lAx68z0qxZHCgz3tMPmYHPQxLt6BkjKvlKo6Ho63VSWsUZZPUBgZ5W1ygN76g2hYXyhIgcwCEX0Akq3JtmfzuJWiJphlXQtZlgix7rvyp9G3b_Phastv9ilpEjkSQEk/s320/SummaryFigure1.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5678986979973544018" /></a><div style="text-align: left;">Listening to politicians in Washington, there is no doubt that America's huge deficit is leading to the end of the world as we know it. They never fail to describe in horror the effects of ballooning government spending on the future of our children.</div><div><br /></div><div>Here's the problem. It ain't that bad. </div><div>According to the nation's official budget scorekeeper, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, if politicians simply do nothing, the deficit will fall from today's 8.5% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2021. The historical average from 1971 to 2007 was 2.8%. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what's the catch? Real simple. Congressional leaders are simply unable to let the current tax cuts expire. Allowing taxes to rise to their <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">pre</span>-2001 level in late 2012 would drop the deficit to less than half their historical average. Don't let the pre-2001 tax level scare you, taxes as a percentage of GDP were below the post-war average in the late 90s, the budget was balanced and the economy was roaring. </div><div><br /></div><div>That doesn't mean we pull the trigger if the economy is still growing slowly and it doesn't mean that we don't still have work to do on the budget.</div><div><br /></div><div>What it does mean is that current hyperbole is simply out of control. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-23561467104217650932011-11-18T15:17:00.000-08:002011-11-27T08:53:22.610-08:00The Myth of Overuse: Health Care Co-paymentsThere are few things people agree on when it comes to health care reform but one of them is the importance of provider co-pays in reducing health care costs. Liberals and conservatives alike delight on the ability of this simple device to reduce overuse of health care resources. Businesses and governments who fund health care payments enjoy the cost savings of co-pays while benefiting from the warm glow of serving the greater good of health care reform and cost containment. <div><br /></div><div>The assumption is that health care consumers make a trade-off between the price of the care and its true benefits. This usual policy logic dictates that we use elasticity of demand (the change in quantity demanded divided by the change in price) for a category of care to set co-payments. The data indicates a high demand elasticity meaning that the care is of low value. If a small change in price results in less use, than the value of the care must not be very high. </div><div><br /></div><div>But what if that isn't how people make decisions?<a href="http://www.leg.wa.gov/pages/home.aspx"> </a> What if people have biases in judging in making decisions? A particular difficulty with medical procedures is that many people tend to judge them much worse before than after the procedure. Their fear of the procedure makes them subject a bias again the care that is confirmed by the co-pay. People suffer from a great deal of confusion and anxiety when making health care decisions. </div><div> </div><div><a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w14330">What if people aren't very good had judging the medical risks of various procedures?</a> Could people myopically discount adverse health outcomes? </div><div><a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/achandr/CGMRevision2_final.pdf">There is disturbing evidence that small changes in co-pays have huge effects utilization. </a> </div><div><br /></div><div>While there everyone agrees that co-pays create lower utilization rates, the important question is, do co-pays end up limiting <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">overconsumption</span> of medical care or does it lead to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">underconsumption</span> of medical care. Do patients reduce the amount of care they purchase based on inaccurate assumptions of risk thus leading to higher long term costs for consumers as well as higher social costs for society? </div><div><br /></div><div>This is particularly likely to be true in the case of low-income patients. A $50 co-pay may reduce <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">overconsumption</span> by high income patients while creating <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">underconsumption</span> for low income patient. </div><div><br /></div><div>There are alternatives to simple using a meat ax on health care. Differential pricing could be valuable in this process. One idea would be to increase the co-pay as the number of visits increase. Another would be to set the co-pay as a percentage of income. Co-pays may just be another excuse to cut services to those of us who are less well off. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-76254957038725202062011-11-02T06:23:00.000-07:002011-11-02T08:06:20.385-07:00The Media and ConfidenceThis morning's <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2016665786_greece02.html">Seattle Times headline screamed "Greek Debt Vote <i>Rocks</i> Markets" </a>. The article went on to proclaim that "U.S. stocks <i>plunged</i> as <i>investors fretted </i>that Europe's problems, believed largely resolved, now appear far from settled and <i>threaten</i> a week recovery." The Dow Jones fell nearly 300 points. <div><br /></div><div>Today, the market has already made up over 2/3 of yesterday's loss buoyed by good news of private sector job creation. </div><div><br /></div><div>Hmmm. Do you think that the uptick will make the Times headline? Did the Times headline last week's good news on GDP growth? </div><div><br /></div><div>The point is that people tend to take in news with the emotional part of the brain not the rational part. The constant outflow of bad news accumulate into declining consumer confidence. Any good news is generally off the media radar screen. </div><div><br /></div><div>In reality, a recovery is very slowly building and markets have been relatively stable on a monthly basis over the past year. But consumer confidence has lagged. We are mere mortals who forecast the future primarily on the mood of today, when things are good, they are good forever. When they are bad, they are bad forever. The Seattle Times is merely doing it's job, but the effect is to tamp down consumer confidence. </div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-57978257366171235432011-10-26T07:06:00.000-07:002011-10-26T10:14:52.468-07:00Lack of Confidence, Frustration and Alienation<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj128PDGOlEtEs-rl3ajrtCfIPxuWEEPI2ShD6Wc9nN_wJpcpv0p_6GqfZ4TJKGKI8Uh3C7XoGwYKPNhxTug2-q1MPiuwyHW6pyuiBSN59EpnkaW1KCRr2g27FmEqjVdagvy3x_a-ppPZAc/s1600/cbo+graphic.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj128PDGOlEtEs-rl3ajrtCfIPxuWEEPI2ShD6Wc9nN_wJpcpv0p_6GqfZ4TJKGKI8Uh3C7XoGwYKPNhxTug2-q1MPiuwyHW6pyuiBSN59EpnkaW1KCRr2g27FmEqjVdagvy3x_a-ppPZAc/s320/cbo+graphic.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667846460194850210" /></a><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><a href="http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=12485">The Congressional Budget Office just released a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">repor</span></a>t Monday indicating that household income between 1979 and 2007 grew by 275% for the top 1% of earners and fell by 2 to 3% for middle class Americans. This disparity has risen even more since 2007.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">There are many, many ramifications of this growing income disparity for public policy. One is the sense of unfairness that Americans feel both about the economy and our government. </span><span class="Apple-style-span">This sense of alienation has contributed to the volatility and polarization we are seeing in politics today. The lack of response by Democrats and Republicans alike has led to spontaneous movements like the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span">Secondly, if a higher proportion of the nation's income and wealth is going to the very richest, a segment that spends significantly less of their income than the middle class, could that be contributing a lack of consumer demand in the economy? </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span">On top of this, <a href="http://innovationandgrowth.wordpress.com/2011/10/01/the-state-of-young-college-grads-2011/#comment-3682">recent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">BLS</span> data </a>indicates that the wages of college graduates has fallen steeply since 2000 as college tuition has increased and student debt has sky-rocketed. The estrangement and frustration felt by young people today does not forebode well for the future productivity of our country as college debt increases to record levels in response to sky-rocketing tuition. </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 17px;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><span class="Apple-style-span"></span></span></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-20428925556814081752011-10-24T16:48:00.000-07:002011-10-26T07:03:00.481-07:00The Animal Spirits of Capitalism Continued<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0u6Dy7zhNNlI-nZkMrAej9Rb5zVuLVpwGW21pHzpAeq0RSeSwqaASVXZWAYqOsqs9guhuqVpMYgZt4kdj2x10aYxc0d8K1Zf-xKMw7Zh-psVUNo5Mtt7-FqnRtX37OGCGxCu9M2o5vmG6/s1600/sell+excell+buy.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 314px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0u6Dy7zhNNlI-nZkMrAej9Rb5zVuLVpwGW21pHzpAeq0RSeSwqaASVXZWAYqOsqs9guhuqVpMYgZt4kdj2x10aYxc0d8K1Zf-xKMw7Zh-psVUNo5Mtt7-FqnRtX37OGCGxCu9M2o5vmG6/s320/sell+excell+buy.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667210753305930450" /></a><img src="http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BD114_VITALS_NS_20111025164803.jpg" /><br /><div><br /></div><div>I hope that most Americans have finally gotten the message that financial markets aren't necessarily rational and on the down and upside of the business cycle can be absolutely crazy and horribly damaging.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>There does seem to be a fair amount of agreement that our economic troubles are caused by a "lack of confidence" in the future, The question is how do you calm these skittish wrecks and move the economy forward. I mean how do you restore confidence to our economy?<div><div><br /></div><div>I think there are basically two competing paradigms on the restoration of confidence. A supply side approach and a demand side approach. </div><div><br /></div><div>The supply side approach is the primary approach of the Republicans but also seems to be the dominant theme for Obama's economic advisers. The first step is to restore the confidence of Wall Street by demonstrating calm and moderation. Secondly, you make a commitment to keeping future interest rates and taxes down by cutting the size of government and closing the deficit. Finally, you create even more incentives for investment by lowering tax rates, simplifying the tax system and deregulating the economy. Add to that recipe free trade agreements and tax-free repatriation of foreign profits.</div> <p class="MsoNormal">The demand siders assume that the problem is lack of effective demand in the economy. That businesses aren't investing because they are not confident anyone will buy their products. Furthermore, lower taxes or incentives will have little impact since firms are making huge profits and have even larger accumulations of cash which they are not investing. Furthermore, they would argue, that it is deregulation that got us here in the first place.</p><p class="MsoNormal">They would suggest restoring the confidence of consumes by quenching their desire for fairness and ensuring that the people who created the crisis are those who are paying for it. The public doesn't have any confidence in government to a large extent because they believe the government looks after the interest of big corporation and banks and does little to represent them. Perhaps, if there was an effort to create more fairness in the distribution in the costs of the recession and lay the blame where they think it belongs, then consumers may have more confidence, provide more political support for a bigger stimulus and perhaps be willing to go out and spend more. This approach incentivizes buying. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Supply siders respond by saying, nonsense, now you'll really scare them and they will never invest again and take all their money to Greece or China. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">What is the answer for restoring confidence? I think a little of each perhaps. Signal to the public that you believe that the middle class and the poor have paid too much of the cost of the recession and that Wall Street and their owners need to pony up a larger share. But combine this with a thoughtful and certain long term deficit plan. </p></div></div></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5306022180622878460.post-67109944798206978752011-10-19T14:18:00.000-07:002011-11-19T09:55:20.192-08:00The Animal Spirits of Capitalism<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi114jXn-9Mk10EJ-DuAsVetZMSfjrR8tGBMZG6PnjsBWBlcp4syuHNAdvxgHpULvr373BkjaUro4Ifs4BX0CtniquW1jL4wm1ylGxy-Gh5Tysb6eoUPF96YzCyd61NbbebJExbKhrNpFqD/s1600/the+herd.bmp" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 390px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi114jXn-9Mk10EJ-DuAsVetZMSfjrR8tGBMZG6PnjsBWBlcp4syuHNAdvxgHpULvr373BkjaUro4Ifs4BX0CtniquW1jL4wm1ylGxy-Gh5Tysb6eoUPF96YzCyd61NbbebJExbKhrNpFqD/s400/the+herd.bmp" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5665331605274481042" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOK4SlSKqlNvHtD6kJCkb72rWDxnpgC4on_DWOhuCqO3Sloi6W2_QqGYrqO6sdUN9_RR5c9avHGw8GAEjw8qeDasaAgbpK5kNnOW0S3ugOE07xO89kSGo85T2_yoZ6FBP-5TLbxp6mRJuD/s1600/animal+spirits.JPG" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOK4SlSKqlNvHtD6kJCkb72rWDxnpgC4on_DWOhuCqO3Sloi6W2_QqGYrqO6sdUN9_RR5c9avHGw8GAEjw8qeDasaAgbpK5kNnOW0S3ugOE07xO89kSGo85T2_yoZ6FBP-5TLbxp6mRJuD/s320/animal+spirits.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5665331447028569842" /></a><span class="Apple-style-span">The story of the economy today is a story about confidence. Investors and consumers alike are uncertain about the future and thus they tend to hold on to their money and spend less on big durable goods and investments. The fact that this crisis was precipitated by an over investment in housing making restoring confidence doubly hard. </span><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span">John Maynard Keynes famously said, "<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference" style="line-height: 1em; font-style: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_General_Theory_of_Employment,_Interest_and_Money">[3]</a></span></span></sup></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><sup class="reference" style="line-height: 1em; font-style: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></sup></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 13px; ">Wall Street is the tale of the bulls and the bears. And the problem is they tend to run in herds. When things look good, investors run with the bulls and when things look bad, they run away with the bears. Rational thought has some bearing on this trend but not so much on either end of the spectrum. When things are going particularly well, irrational exuberance sets in leading to a chain of overinvestment in the latest thing, corruption and ultimately a crash of confidence.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 13px; "><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 13px; ">This is all very well and good but what do we do about it? How do we restore confidence, that is the question. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 13px; "><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 13px; "><br /></span></span></div>Nafzbloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01604152374234954343noreply@blogger.com0